To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. How could 16 out of 17 bellwether counties predict a Trump win - Quora However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). But both are worth watching. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! But it's also not unprecedented. 03:30. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) Their hopes are real. The divisions were everywhere. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. Trump won the other 18 counties. They're just facts about the vote. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Putting names to archive photos, The children left behind in Cuba's mass exodus, In photos: India's disappearing single-screen cinemas. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. That's 14 in a row. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. Republicans have paid some attention.
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